Even people who are not real estate "analysts" are getting into the game of predicting what's happening in the market. Last week New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg warned that the real estate market in his city was slowing "dramatically" and only a "miracle" could stop soaring mortgage rates from eating into housing prices.
Apparently, the Mayor does a regular radio show. In last week's broadcast, he stated that higher mortgages rates were beginning to impact consumers who are not nearly as eager as they had been to invest in a new home at the record high prices being asked in his city. I say, who can blame them? Further, if analysts are right (which is a statistical probability at some point although not certain), prices are going to fall and fall substantially if the market is "overheated". If prices are going to fall, I'd wait too before I bought!
Well, of course, waiting can mean that you spend a lot of time and effort focusing on something with little return. Not to be a "broken record" (which will soon be a completely misunderstood expression) but we're still on the baby watch here, and we're finding that watching can wear you out.
How long before people are "exhausted" by the talk of a housing crash? Like the boy who cried wolf, I suspect that many have stopped listening to the analysts, and that might be to everyone's detriment.
In the same way that you need to pay attention every time you drive, you need to pay attention every time you contemplate getting into the market. And whether I like it or not, I'll be paying attention every time my wife says, "I think it might be time" even if we have still more "dress rehearsals" coming.
That doesn't mean that you can't ignor the analysts at the moment. I am.
Michael